The peak season for shipping goods into the US has passed its top this year. The Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates shows that US container import volumes are starting to fall after an unusually long peak season that ran from mid-summer into early autumn.
The numbers
Ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.3 million TEUs in August, up 0.4% from July but down 0.7% from the same period last year. August now looks like the busiest month of 2026, which is different from the earlier forecast that September would hold that position.
The latest forecast cuts September to 2.28 million TEUs, below the 2.31 million TEUs projected a month earlier. October is expected to ease to 2.25 million TEUs, and November falls to 2 million TEUs. Even so, September volumes are still forecast to rise 8.2% year over year, and October by 8.5%.
For the full year, Global Port Tracker forecasts imports at major US container ports to reach 25.8 million TEUs, up 1.4% from 25.4 million TEUs in 2025. Moving into early 2027, January is forecast at 2.07 million TEUs, down 1.9% year over year, and February at 1.92 million TEUs, up 1%.
Why the peak season ran long
Retailers moved merchandise into the US earlier in the year to get ahead of tariff changes and supply chain uncertainty. At first this made many people think imports would peak early and then decline through the summer. The reality was the opposite: volumes stayed high, partly because of shipping delays and still-solid consumer demand.
At the port level, the Port of Los Angeles recorded its three busiest months on record in June, July and August. The Port of Savannah reported a record September with 504,015 TEUs, up 3.7% from the same period last year.
Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation, said most holiday merchandise has arrived in the US, and the rest of the year is just last-minute replenishment and preparation for early 2027.
What this means for goods exported from Vietnam
The most important point for Vietnamese businesses is timing. If your goods serve the US end-of-year holiday season, most of them have already sailed. The period from now to the end of the year is a period of last-minute replenishment, not a peak period. That usually means less pressure to secure space on ships to the US than in mid-summer.
But do not read the November figure falling to 2 million TEUs as a sign of weakening demand. At the same time, the September and October forecasts are still up compared with the same period last year. The drop in volume from September to November mainly reflects holiday goods having already moved, not necessarily that US buyers are buying less.
For businesses preparing for the first quarter of 2027, the January forecast of a 1.9% year-over-year decline is a point to note when planning production and delivery. February's 1% increase shows more of a flat trend than a bounce.
What the report does not say
The report does not say what percentage of US import volume comes from Vietnam, so the direct impact on Vietnamese goods cannot be measured from these figures. The report also does not give specific freight rates or rate forecasts for the trans-Pacific route. And the report does not explain which tariff changes caused retailers to push goods out early.
So the way to use this information is to track timing, not to infer freight rates. If you have a shipment to the US in November or December, confirm directly with your carrier about space on the vessel and the cut-off schedule, rather than relying on the general volume forecast for the US market.